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Daily News
by Gail Helmer

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Jane's News Briefs

Thursday, October 04, 2001

Jane's Defence Weekly
NATO bid to keep missile defence studies separate
NATO is going to extra lengths to prevent "cross pollenisation" of two independent industrial feasibility studies intended to develop ideas for an alliance theatre missile defence capability.

Israel accelerates security procurement
The Israeli government has accelerated procurement of border and perimeter security systems in the wake of the 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

India steps up fight against corruption
The Indian Ministry of Defence has called on Transparency International, a Berlin-based non-governmental anti-corruption watchdog group, to help it combat corruption in arms deals and recommend measures to improve its military procurement system.

Czechs dismiss biological terror links
The Czech government has dismissed reports that international terrorists affiliated with Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaida organisation had obtained anthrax and botulin biological agents from the Czech Republic before 1995.

Japan set to expand scope of its security
Japan intends to edge forward with its security policy in response to the 11 September terror attacks against the US, with the government planning to introduce legislation that would broaden the scope of Self-Defence Force activity.

China reforms budget system
China is reforming its defence budgeting system from next year to improve efficiency, control and flexibility with the introduction of practices based on Western accounting methods.

Russian 'fly-by-wire' trainer wins
Russia recently selected Kazan's Ansat lightweight helicopter to meet its armed forces' requirement for a training helicopter, and a small number of Kamov Ka-226Us are also to be ordered for use by the navy.

Jane's Defence Upgrades
Upgraded Sukhois shown at MAKS
Upgrades of two classic Sukhoi aircraft, the Su-24 'Fencer' and the Su-25 'Frogfoot', were on display at the MAKS 2001 air show at Zhukovsky, Moscow, last month. The first upgraded Su-25SM prototype had, only a few days before the show, been at the Russian Air Force Aircraft Repair Plant No.121 in Kubinka completing its overhaul and modernisation.

Refit of Admiral Gorshkov for India delayed
India and Russia have yet to sign an agreement to refit the former Russian carrier Admiral Gorshkov (originally the Baku) in Russia prior to being transferred to the Indian Navy (see JDU Vol III No.24 p1). The delay reflects rising cost estimates and potential problems with the refit.

Germany studies re-powering its M109 SPH
Industriewerke Saar Gmbh (IWS) of Nuremberg - part of the Diehl Group -has conducted a Re-powering Study for the M109 155mm self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) in service with the German and US armies. The Detroit Diesel V-8 71T engine, which now powers the M109 series, has reached its limits of serviceability. The engine is no longer in production and availability of spare parts may create a bottleneck for further supply and support.

Bulgaria opts for MiG-29 upgrade
The Commander of the Bulgarian Air Force Air Defence Corps, General Dimitar Georgiev, announced on 28 August, that it had decided against acquiring US F-16 fighters and will overhaul and upgrade of its existing MiG-29 'Fulcrum' fleet. According to Bulgarian military sources, the country intends to overhaul and upgrade its 21 MiG-29s, using the EADS/Aerostar/Elbit -developed 'Sniper' upgrade.

SHOW REPORT: DSEi
Among the upgrade stories to emerge from the Defence Systems and Equipment International (DSEi) exhibition in London's docklands (11-14 September) were the re-engining of British Army CVR(T) light armoured vehicles, the adoption of Giat Industries' FINDERS battle-management system by the Swiss Army and the current status of the adoption of the US Navy's Co-operative Engagement Capability (CEC) by the Royal Navy.

UOPGRADE OVERVIEW:
Minuteman III guidance shows accuracy problems The US Department of Defense has confirmed that accuracy problems are being experienced with the new NS-50 guidance system being retrofitted to the US Air Force (USAF) Boeing LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) under the Guidance Replacement Program (GRP). Doug Richardson reports.

INDUSTRY INITIATIVE:
More means of modernising MiG-29s shown at MAKS Prompted by an impending contract to sell the MiG-29K naval fighter to India, the Russian Aircraft Corporation (RAC) used the MAKS air show at Zhukovsky, to display new technologies installed in the land-based MiG-29 'Fulcrum' fighters. These included the MiG-29OVT with thrust-vectoring engine nozzles and the two-seat MiG-29M2 strike aircraft.

Jane's Foreign Report
Pakistan's 'mullah' generals
Islamists in uniform should be watched closely THE military ruler of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf, is co-operating with the United States-led alliance in its actions against neighbouring Afghanistan's fundamentalist Taliban regime. He is himself threatened by the 'mullah' generals serving under him. The fear is that some Islamist generals, possibly aided by battle-hardened Taliban, might take advantage of a revolt against Musharraf by seizing control of a Pakistani nuclear weapon during riots leading to the installation of a theocratic regime in Pakistan. That would be the mother of all nightmares.

"Washington as Islam's enemy"
Intelligence reports indicate that Gen. Musharraf's offer of extending operational support to Washington against the Taliban has been marred by differences between the nine powerful corps commanders who expressed grave reservations over giving in to American demands.

One stop shop
The JeI says Islam is not only a way of life but also a complete system of politics, economics and culture. It is virulently opposed to Western secular democracy and socialist doctrines, believing that Sharia Islamic law is an 'organic' set of regulations that govern all aspects of life. Encouraged by the JeI, many newly commissioned officers consider themselves to be soldiers of Islam as well as soldiers of the regime.

Islamist padres
Zia also introduced several measures not only to Islamise Pakistan's relatively secular military but also to abolish British traditions. Mullahs were assigned as battalion chaplains, mosques built in unit training areas and Islamic texts introduced in courses of instruction. Special Islamic religion courses were instituted for officers; attendance at Friday prayers became obligatory.

Beware, nuclear smugglers
Foreign Report can reveal that there have been 20 confirmed attempts at nuclear smuggling this year alone, and more than 370 over the past seven years, 15 of them involving plutonium or weapons-grade uranium. A global database run by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shows a significant recent increase in such incidents. More than 50 poorly policed nuclear installations dotted across the former Soviet Union still hold an estimated total of 520 tonnes of weapons-grade material, enough to make perhaps 35,000 bombs. Lack of security or reliable inventories make this material dangerously vulnerable to smugglers.

The case of the grumbling generals
AS WE REPORTED immediately after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, Russia's President Vladimir Putin quickly understood that his country could derive benefits by supporting the United States. At the very least, Russia will no longer be bothered by Western protests about its war against terrorists in Chechnya.

Poland hesitates
Before Poland's elections on September 23rd, we predicted that the outgoing government, headed by Solidarity Election Action (AWS), would be soundly beaten and the Democratic Left Alliance/Labour Union (SLD/UP) coalition would sweep to victory. The AWS was indeed thrashed, unable even to command the necessary 8% of the vote to win representation in parliament, while its erstwhile partner, the Freedom Union (founded by Leszek Balcerowitz, father of Polish reform in 1990 and now central bank governor), suffered the same fate. Both parties will now probably disband, spelling the dramatic end of Solidarity - the nemesis of communism in Poland - as a political force.

Europe's new foreign legions
NOW that Western Europe no longer faces the threat of a land attack, governments on the continent are fast trading in their old standing armies composed largely of conscripts for new all-professional fighting forces. France announced in June it was putting an immediate end to national service, Spain has just enrolled its last intake of conscripts and Italy recently declared it would end the draft in 2006. Some military chiefs are already voicing concern over how to attract high-calibre recruits to their new-style forces. There is a novel solution.

Jane's Intelligence Digest
Is this a winnable war?
The US-led 'war against terrorism' is still in its early stages but it is becoming increasingly obvious that in the absence of reliable intelligence concerning the actual location of prime suspect Osama Bin Laden the international coalition has little option but to step up pressure against the Taliban regime in the hope that the mounting military encirclement of Afghanistan will convince Mullah Omar and his inner circle that the country's most infamous 'guest' has finally outstayed his welcome. In reality the fate of Bin Laden is likely to be far less important than the intelligence operations against his supporters abroad.

Editor's notes - The end of the Cold War
The end of the Cold War - and the disintegration of the Soviet Union -promised to herald the birth of a 'new world order'. At the beginning of the 1990s there was much talk of reducing Western defence expenditure in line with what was perceived as a global environment in which threats to the interests of the USA and its allies would be significantly reduced.

CIS states offer support to USA
The formation of the US-led international anti-terrorism coalition is set to further divide members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) into pro-Western and pro-Russian camps. The previous US administration was unwilling to lend its support to the pro-Western group of states - GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova) - for fear of harming relations with Russia.

Israel, the Palestinians and the USA
In a week in which US President George W. Bush became the first Republican leader to make a formal commitment to the concept of a Palestinian state, efforts to broker a workable peace deal are becoming increasingly desperate ahead of military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However, as JID's regional correspondent reports from the West Bank, prospects for a breakthrough are extremely limited.

Jane's Intelligence Watch Report and Jane's Terrorism Watch Report
Afghanistan - Osama bin Laden
- The Times of India reported on 2 October that "highly reliable" Pakistani sources have reported that US Special Forces are searching for Osama bin Laden at a former Soviet base in the Wakhan Corridor in the northeast of Afghanistan. The base is near the village of Buzi Gunbad, surrounded by Pamir peaks rising more than 24,600 feet (7,500 meters). The area is sparsely populated, and home to Kyrgyz nomads and several small Ismaili communities.

Italy
- ANSA news agency reported on 2 October that Italian authorities are conducting wide-scale searches of the homes of Muslim citizens in Rome and elsewhere. The Central Office for General Investigations and Special Operations of the State Police have been seeking arms as well as any information that might shed light on possible fundamentalist terrorist cells in Italy.

Bosnia-Hercegovina
- HINA news agency reported on 1 October that NATO Stabilization Force (SFOR) members have arrested four suspects involved in terrorist activities in Bosnia-Hercegovina. The detained suspects include an Egyptian, a Jordanian and two Bosnians. SFOR found the Bosnians in possession of DM120,000 ($56,280).

France
- BBC reported on 1 October that Algerian Djamel Beghal is being questioned by French authorities after being extradited to France from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Beghal is believed to have been involved in plans to attack the US embassy in Paris. Beghal was arrested 28 July in the UAE with a false French passport. French authorities have already detained seven people in conjunction with the plot. They extradited Kamel Daoudi from the UK to France on 29 September for questioning about possible complicity in the operation.

India - Jammu and Kashmir - Jaish-e-Muhammad and al-Qaeda
- The Times of India reported on 2 October that Indian authorities believe that a suicide attack on 1 October on the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly that killed 26 people was carried out by pro-Pakistani militants. Jaish-e-Muhammad claimed responsibility for the attacks. Minister of State for External Affairs Omar Abdullah said, "There are credible links between the organizations which attempted the burning down of the Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir and the al-Qaeda network responsible for the September 11 terrorist strikes in the US."

Jordan
- AFP news agency reported on 2 October that a Jordanian-American on trial in Amman for suspected membership in al-Qaeda accused Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of responsibility for the 11 September terrorist attacks in the US. Raed Hijazi was sentenced to death in absentia in September 2000 for his part in plotting attacks on US, Christian and Jewish targets in Jordan. Hijazi was arrested in Syria last November and extradited to Jordan; his new trial on the same charges opened last May.

Jane's World Airlines
AMTRAN, INC CONTACTING POTENTIAL FINANCING SOURCES
Amtran, the parent company of American Trans Air, Inc has been contacting several potential financing sources relating to its privatisation. This financing would replace the commitment of Citicorp USA, Inc and Salomon Smith Barney Inc which was terminated on 21 September. To date, Amtran has been unable to obtain any alternative financing which it felt is related to the current conditions in the airline industry.

FINNAIR AND PARTNER TO LAUNCH NEW ROUTE TO STOCKHOLM
Finnair and its Swedish partner Golden Air are commencing flights from Helsinki to Skavsta Airport in Stockholm at the end of October 2001. The opening of the new route is part of Finnair's strategy to find new business opportunities and improve its route network profitability through effective feeder service.

THAI AIRWAYS ANNOUNCES MEASURES AND COMMERCIAL STRATEGY TO COMBAT RECENT EFFECTS
Through a press conference held on 3 October, Thai Airways has announced measures in response to the effects on the airline industry worldwide following the terrorist attacks in the US. The airline has increased security measures on all Thai flights departing from Bangkok, and all stations to which Thai operates. It will look at flight reductions on uneconomical domestics flights and the adjustment of flights between low passenger demand and high passenger demand. It has also introduced several cost cutting programs for the 2001/2 fiscal year with the revision of certain investments such as aircraft spare parts and in-flight products. It has also reduced operational costs through delaying building and non-essential office maintenance and the closing of some of its off-line overseas offices.

US AIRWAYS ANNOUNCES ADDITIONAL COST REDUCING STEPS
Following an earlier announcement that it is reducing capacity by 23 per cent, US Airways has announced further steps to reduce costs. These measures will include the closure of reservations centers in Dayton, Indianapolis and Syracuse, further to the planned closure of its San Diego reservations center.

VIETNAM AIRLINES TAKES DELIVERY OF ITS FIRST ATR 72-500
Based in Hanoi, Vietnam Airlines has taken delivery of its first ATR 72-500 as part of a fleet development plan. The airline ordered three ATR72-500s in February 2001 and the remaining deliveries are scheduled to take place in February and June 2002. The new aircraft will be operated on its Vietnamese regional network. Vietnam Airlines serves 15 domestic locations and 25 international cities.

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