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Daily News
by Gail Helmer
Jane's News Briefs
Thursday, June 28, 2001Jane's Defence Weekly
US studies alternatives to two-war strategyThe US Department of Defense's Quadrennial Defense Review will study alternative approaches to national security that balance involvement in small-scale contingencies and fighting war with investments in future capabilities, said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Bid to press forward with NATO AGS programme
Northrop Grumman and EADS are seeking to inject new life into NATO's slow-moving, but potentially vital Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) project by promoting a joint solution based on the US company's Multi-Platform Radar Technology Insertion Programme (RTIP).
Israel option boosts F-16 orders
Lockheed Martin has reached agreement with the government of Israel to supply its air force with more than 52 additional F-16I fighters for around $2 billion between 2006 and 2009.
Sweden selects A 109M
Sweden's Defence Materiel Administration has confirmed its selection of the AgustaWestland A 109M training helicopter to meet its armed forces' Hkp15 requirement from October 2002.
The Netherlands selects Gill
The Netherlands Ministry of Defence has selected the Israeli Rafael Armament Development Authority Gill for its medium-range anti-tank (MRAT) missile programme, senior officials have confirmed.
Spain looks close to selecting Eurocopter Tiger
Spain appears close to selecting the Eurocopter Tiger for its attack helicopter requirement, with Eurocopter prepared to offer Madrid a share in the Franco-German project in direct proportion to the number of aircraft it orders.
US Navy to restructure SH-60 programme
The US Navy is poised to restructure its Sikorsky SH-60R Seahawk multi-mission helicopter programme, changing it from a rebuild to a re-buy procurement strategy.
Royal Thai Army regroups to counter border threat
The Royal Thai Army's paramilitary Thahan Prahan (Hunter Soldiers or Rangers), one of the front-line guards of Thailand's often ill-defined and porous borders, have completed a major reorganisation.
Jane's Foreign Report
Soul searching at the summit:
Bush and Putin take a close look at each other "I LOOKED the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his soul." These were the words of President George Bush after his recent meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Bush was immediately attacked by some members of Congress for this glib statement; former KGB officers like Putin are not meant to have souls, and most certainly not souls easily detected through just a cursory glance. Yet, in two respects, Bush was right. Getting a sense of Putin?s soul is not equivalent to saying that one liked what one saw. More importantly, when it comes to predicting what Putin will do in the near future--which is the only issue of interest for American decision-makers--Putin is a fairly open book. Here is a summary of what the Russians are expected to do in their dealings with the Americans in the next 18 months.
In booming, communist Cyprus. . .
LAST month, the Communist party narrowly won parliamentary elections in Cyprus. International concern was non-existent; even the United States, which 30 years ago called this country the Cuba of the Mediterranean, seemed unbothered. What happened?
Indian peace pipe
NOBODY has brought out the flags and started to cheer. This is because the two countries have been to war too many times. Cynicism abounds. Nonetheless, Iran is planning to lay a gas ?pipeline of peace? through Pakistan to customers in India. Could it bring to an end a dangerous, pointless and wasteful half century of mutual antagonism between India and Pakistan?
Why Iran fired Scuds at Iraq
THE low-intensity conflict between Iran and the main Iranian rebel force, the Mujahedeen-e Khalq, which is based in Iraq, is heating up again. Could it become a full-scale war?
Bulgaria's populist king-in-waiting
AS predicted by Foreign Report several months ago, Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, better known to his enthusiastic countrymen as King Simeon II, has staged an impressive political comeback. Early returns from Bulgaria?s parliamentary elections suggest that his National Movement--formed just two months ago in response to widespread disillusionment with other parties--has secured an impressive 43% of the vote, sufficient for around 120 seats in the 240 seat parliament. The centre-right Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) which rescued the country from economic collapse when it came to power in 1997 but failed to generate a ?feel-good factor? among impoverished voters, secured some 23% of the vote, while the Socialist Party (BSP) saw its share drop to 17%, worse even than its 1997 performance when only 22% of voters supported it.
Jane's Intelligence Digest
The next Balkan war
This week's violence in Macedonia appears to have taken many within the international community by surprise. Jane's Intelligence Digest subscribers, on the other hand, have been well briefed on the serious implications of the latest round of Balkan blood-letting. As we predicted back in November, Macedonia would be the scene of the next battle between ethnic Albanian separatists (see Jane's Intelligence Digest, 10 November 2000). Events on the ground have fulfilled our experts? forecast that Western sponsored moves to create a coalition government inclusive of the two main ethnic Albanian political parties (the Democratic Party of Albanians and the Party of Democratic Prosperity) last month were doomed to failure. In fact, this week we feel bound to warn that further Western diplomacy of the kind we have seen in action this week risks tipping Macedonia over the edge and into a full-scale civil war.
Jane's Intelligence Watch Report and Jane's Terrorism Watch Report
India - Osama bin Laden
- Police on 22 June arrested a fourth man on suspicion of involvement with a group linked to Osama bin Laden and suspected of plotting to bomb US embassies in India and Bangladesh, Reuters reported. Three men were arrested the week before following a tip-off in April about a possible attack on the US embassy in New Delhi. The fourth man was arrested on 21 June in the eastern city of Patna and was being brought to the capital New Delhi for questioning. A senior police official told Reuters the fourth man allegedly was to have been the driver of "an explosives-laden car" to be driven to the US embassy. Police said the group was also suspected of plotting an attack on the US embassy in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh.
Peru - National Intelligence Service [Servicio de Inteligencia Nacional (SIN)]
- Former SIN chief Vladimiro Montesinos was betrayed by a former Venezuelan intelligence agent he had apparently sent to Miami, Florida to withdraw money from a $38-million account, BBC reported on 26 June, citing US and Peruvian authorities. The man turned up in May at the Miami branch of the Cayman Islands-registered Pacific Industrial Bank, telling bank officials that unless they released the money from the frozen account, Montesinos would go public with what he claimed to know about the bank's involvement in money laundering. Bank officials then tipped off the FBI who apprehended the man and two others on 21 June. Anxious to arrange a plea bargain, he offered to set up Montesinos' capture. Montesinos is now in police custody in the capital Lima and will be facing charges ranging from embezzlement to ordering death squads.
Angola - National Union for the Total Independence of Angola [Uniao Nacional para la Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA)]
- UNITA rebels on 26 June attacked the provincial capital of Uige, 150 miles (250 km) northeast of the capital Luanda, managing to enter the city for a few hours, BBC reported. Independent sources in Uige said that 10 UNITA rebels and one government soldier were killed before the rebels were driven out.
India - Jammu and Kashmir - Jamiat-ul Mujahideen
- Police said that at least 10 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with separatist militants on 25 June in a forest in the Gurez sector near the Line of Control which divides Indian and Pakistani forces in the disputed state, BBC reported on 26 June. Six militants were also reported to be killed in the fighting that broke out after 25 militants belonging to the Jamiat-ul Mujahideen were besieged by the soldiers. Reports said that the fighting is continuing.
Macedonia - National Liberation Army (NLA)
- President Boris Trajkovski has appealed for calm nearly 24 hours after demonstrators stormed parliament calling for his resignation during a night of violence in the capital Skopje, BBC reported on 26 June. The violence on the night of 25 June was triggered by a Western-led evacuation of ethnic Albanian NLA rebels from the village of Aracinovo that enraged Macedonian nationalists. However, on 26 June fresh shelling by the Macedonian army targeted the village of Nikustak, where the rebels had been escorted from Aracinovo.
Senegal - Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC)
- Two rival MFDC factions clashed in the southern Casamance region on 24 June, causing heavy casualties, BBC reported on 26 June. Civilians who fled the fighting said that it had been one of the biggest military offensives involving the rival factions. Although the Senegalese army did not get involved, troops from across the border in Guinea-Bissau were drawn into the action as they tried to prevent the fighters from entering the country.
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