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Topic: China wants war...
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Skater
Member
Member # 3257
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posted 03-07-2000 06:47 PM
Alex, not even close to what would be needed.Russia is fighting a war that is quickly putting her into irreversable debt. Russia better do something soon, or she won't be able to pay her debts, and should she default (yet again) on her loans, her credit with the world banks will be so shot she may never be able to come back from it (at least not in my lifetime). -Skater
Posts: 78 | From: NYC | Registered: Feb 2000 | IP: Logged
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_ALEX_
unregistered
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posted 03-07-2000 08:29 PM
You see, they also had 25% proficit (ie, spent less than collected). Chechen war is not cheap affair, but not too expensive, either. We are talking here about some 100,000 troops using basically free-of-charge ammo and weapons (Warsaw Pact and sometimes even WWII stocks). With low average salaries that's maybe 200-300 mln usd per month (cant look up the actual reported figure, but in that order of magnitude). Skater, on this topic you can take my word - as long as oil costs $30 per barrel, Russia can afford much more than when oil costs $10 per barrel.
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vip
Member
Member # 3379
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posted 03-08-2000 01:44 PM
You guys talk about hitting China where it hurts most: Their wallet. Well, if you wanna bring up a kid who spend all his money on icecream and wan't to lend some $, it might work, but a whole country? Nope! If the international community isolated China to such an extend, that they went poorer and poorer, then you'd get a war for shure! I'm not in any way attached to China physically or mentally, but my suggestion is to let'em get the chance to earn money, 'cause when they start doing that, the next thing a chinese dude would wanna do, is buy a computer and connect to the Internet, when his 1. personal needs (food etc) has been met. I know China has stated that they wanna screen in / outgoing traffic from peoples computers, but that's a huge undertaking of monumental proportions: It's not going to be effective. The chinese people will then start to learn what freedom of speach and democracy means by exploring the net, and they won't be so conflictious. Anyone follows me here?? Maybe you guys think I'm naive, but just look at Iraq: What good has it done to anyone to keep'em away from international markets? Saddam's still there convincing his people that USA is the real Satan, and it's easy too: It's not possible for the iraqi people to get reliable information! Look at the serb / kosovo conflict: If those people were as rich as Denmark, I think they'd get by more easily. I'm not saying that money solves everything, just saying that as long as you've got such poor country's, the problems present in such a country can explode into war. Sorry for my not so good english, but I'm danish, and btw, far far away from China, we don't even have nukes in Denmark (thank God), so it's easier for me as I'm not the guy targeted here, thank God again ;-) And excuse me for my sarcasm. Peace!! vip
Posts: 160 | From: Denmark | Registered: Feb 2000 | IP: Logged
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_ALEX_
unregistered
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posted 03-12-2000 04:28 PM
Good point, but most of you miss three quarters of the twisted logic here. We cannot know whether Chinese will or will not commit to such an attack. What they (as far as I understand) did is to point out that they do not rule such an option out. Moreover, they will seriously consider it and probably be willing to accept the (undoubtably serious) consequences. That's what nuclear deterrence is all about - typical case. What is interesting, though, is that China uses it offensively (provided, nobody buys this BS about Taiwan being their province). Cannot remember if anybody did that before.
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Enzyme
Member
Member # 3496
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posted 03-12-2000 10:29 PM
That doesn't make much sense.Most of the discussion here predicates on an hypothetical scenario which implies that it is irrelevant whether or not China will "actually" use a nuclear warhead or that China even is contemplating such. The question is what would/should a US reaction be *IF* China attacks a US battlegroup with nuclear warheads? The most justified action is a retaliation in kind. That is, try and determine a regional concentration of Chinese forces and--provided these forces are critical for Chinese military action--nuke it. Nuclear warheads aren't even critical. Try extensive B-52 conventional bomb strikes. If there is no such concentration of Chinese forces, then a retaliatory nuclear strike is a waste.
Posts: 123 | From: | Registered: Mar 2000 | IP: Logged
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mbaxter
Member
Member # 191
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posted 03-13-2000 03:27 PM
All this flippant talk of using nuclear weapons is in fact rediculous. No government, not even the Chinese, would ever be crazy enough to go nuclear unless the very existence of the state was threatened. That is, China itself would have to be invaded before the men in Beijing would authorize nukes, and even then, I suspect they'd engage in a limited strike to show their resolve first. Be realistic: you don't ascend to high positions of power without aquiring a strong sense of self-preservation along the way. Soldiers, heck even some generals, may be brave enough to push the button but no politician ever would be. Politicians are inherently a cowardly and weak lot. This is a universal thing, not just a feature of American politicians. Even Saddam Hussein, a supposedly unstable dictator, didn't have the guts to use chemical weapons against the US. I'm sure the Chinese are even more prudent than Hussein was. This just isn't going to happen. The Chinese will concentrate on guerilla-style warfare with their subs, surface ships, aircraft, and missiles, while making heavy use of naval "smart" mines. They call this "non-linear" warfare. Their generals talk a lot about this.
Posts: 1687 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 1999 | IP: Logged
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Skywalker4777
Member
Member # 3610
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posted 03-15-2000 06:33 PM
Has anyone else read more in-depth analysis of the Chinese threat than a blurb on excite.com? I don't mean that in an insulting way, but as a legitimate question. The Chinese "new warfare" isn't just the use of military weapons, but the recruitment of "fighters" of all kinds. Two generals just wrote a book about exporting terrorism, both violent and non-violent. This means companies with ties to China might become part of their war effort(this means cyber-war, industrial espionage,etc) So we are faced with an enemy that is willing not only to waste the lives of tens of thousands of its own men(as displayed previously), but one that is willing to, in their words, "ignore conventions or legalities of warfare". China may not be a nuclear threat, but considering that the Russians almost launched a couple years ago in response to a misidentified Norwegian rocket, I don't want to take the chance with Theater AND Global Missile Defense. We know we can't count on Clinton-Gore to build up the defense against nations like North Korea. ------------------ If you want peace, prepare for war.
Posts: 1 | From: Ann Arbor, MI, USA | Registered: Mar 2000 | IP: Logged
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